President Trump promised to storm 35 of the most competitive battleground races this fall — but he's kicking off his October blitz in two of the reddest states in America.
Next week, the president will touch down in Durant, Oklahoma, on Thursday and Mobile, Alabama, on Friday — deep-red country where Republicans have dominated for decades and Democrats haven't cracked a statewide race in years.
The detour into friendly territory has set off a round of head-scratching in Washington and raised an uncomfortable question for the GOP: If the map is this good, why is the president playing defense on his own turf?
"Nothing to see here"
A source familiar with Trump's decision insisted to the Washington Examiner that the Alabama and Oklahoma stops are not a sign of Republican panic. Organizers point out that both cities sit in media markets that bleed across state lines, meaning the rallies will pump up turnout in neighboring battlegrounds, not just the host states.
But the itinerary is the latest tell that the party's once-confident firewall is flickering. Republicans have been quietly pouring money into red states they used to take for granted, scrambling to prop up candidates staring down an electorate that has soured on the president and his policies.
Running from the boss
Some Republicans have already started sprinting away from Trump. Candidates in competitive races have scrubbed or downplayed mentions of the president on their campaign websites. A growing chorus has broken with the White House over its unpopular war with Iran, calculating that distance from the commander in chief is now a survival strategy.
The backlash is real. Sky-high prices and the fallout from mass deportations have cracked open doors for Democrats in places the GOP thought were locked down. Polling in Florida — Florida! — has shown statewide races inside the margin of error, a prospect that has party operatives in Tallahassee sweating through their seersucker.
An expanded red-state map
The October swing doesn't stop at Oklahoma and Alabama. Trump has also signaled he wants to stump for Ken Paxton in Texas and Dan Sullivan in Alaska — two more Republican incumbents who should be cruising but aren't. Iowa and Florida have since been tacked onto the schedule, an expanded focus on red states that tells you everything about where Republican nerves are fraying.
Republicans in Iowa, Texas and Alaska have grown increasingly alarmed at how close their Senate races have become amid the Iran war drag and a president whose approval rating keeps sliding. The bigger question, one GOP strategist conceded, is whether there's enough time left to turn it around.
Crowds he craves
For all the hand-wringing, the Durant and Mobile rallies will deliver something Trump can't resist: adoring crowds. He is all but guaranteed to pack both venues with the die-hard supporters who fueled his political rise, projecting the kind of enthusiasm the party desperately needs to drag its candidates across the finish line in November.
Whether the spectacle translates into votes in the places that actually matter — or simply papers over a GOP map that's sprung leaks in spots no one expected — will be the story of the next six weeks.
